Are We Heading into a Balanced Market?
If you’ve been keeping an eye on the housing market over the past couple of years, you know sellers have had the upper hand. But is that going to shift now that inventory is growing? Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know.What Is a Balanced Market?A balanced market is generally defined as a market with about a five-to-seven-month supply of homes available for sale. In this type of market, neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. Prices tend to stabilize, and there’s a healthier number of homes to choose from. And after many years when sellers had all the leverage, a more balanced market would be a welcome sight for people looking to move. The question is – is that really where the market is headed?After starting the year with a three-month supply of homes nationally, inventory has increased to four months. That may not sound like a lot, but it means the market is getting closer to balanced – even though it’s not quite there yet. It’s important to note this increase in inventory is not leading to an oversupply that would cause a crash. Even with the growth lately, there’s still nowhere near enough supply for that to happen.The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to give you an idea of where inventory has been in the past, and where it’s at today:For now, this is still seller’s market territory – it’s just not as frenzied of a seller’s market as it’s been over the past few years. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:“The faster housing supply increases, the more affordability improves and the strength of a seller’s market wanes.”What This Means for You and Your MoveHere's how this shift impacts you and the market conditions you'll face when you move. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:“Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.”The graphs below use the latest data from NAR and Realtor.com to help show examples of these changes:Homes Are Sitting on the Market Longer: Since more homes are on the market, they’re not selling quite as fast. For buyers, this means you may have more time to find the right home. For sellers, it’s important to price your house right if you want it to sell. If you don’t, buyers might choose better-priced options.Sellers Are Receiving Fewer Offers: As a seller, you might need to be more flexible and willing to compromise on price or terms to close the deal. For buyers, you could start to face less intense competition since you have more options to choose from.Fewer Buyers Are Waiving Inspections: As a buyer, you have more negotiation power now. And that’s why fewer buyers are waiving inspections. For sellers, this means you need to be ready to negotiate and address repair requests to keep the sale moving forward.How a Real Estate Agent Can HelpBut this is just the national picture. The type of market you’re in is going to vary a lot based on how much inventory is available. So, lean on a local real estate agent for insight into how your area stacks up.Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how the market is changing gives you a big advantage. Your agent has the latest data and local insights, so you know exactly what’s happening and how to navigate it.Bottom LineThe real estate market is always changing, and it’s important to stay informed. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding this shift toward a balanced market can help. If you have any questions or need expert advice, don’t hesitate to reach out to a local real estate agent.
Read More2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect
Looking ahead to 2025, it's important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you're thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans.Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025.Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down SlightlyMortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below):Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says:“With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.”Expect More Homes To SellThe market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year.According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below):That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year.While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them.Home Prices Will Go Up ModeratelyMore buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below):On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market.Bottom LineUnderstanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you're buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Reach out to a trusted real estate agent to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.
Read MoreWorried About Home Maintenance Costs? Consider This...
Worried About Home Maintenance Costs? Consider This If one of the main reasons you’re hesitant to buy a home is because you’re worried about the upkeep, here’s some information you may find interesting on both new home construction and existing homes (a home that’s been lived in by a previous owner). Newly Built Homes Need Less Upfront Maintenance If you can afford it, you may find a newly built home could help ease your worries about maintenance costs. Think about it, if everything in the house is brand new, it won’t have the wear and tear you may see in an existing home – and that means it’s less likely to need repairs. As LendingTree says: “Since the systems, appliances, roof and foundation are new, you’re less likely to pay for major or minor repairs within the first few years of homeownership. That can make a big difference for first-time homebuyers who are adjusting to owning rather than renting.” Plus, many builders also have warranties on their homes that would cover some of the more major expenses that could pop up. As First American explains: “The new systems in your home, like plumbing, electrical, and HVAC, are typically covered for one to two years by your builder’s warranty. When something happens to these systems, you contact the builder or their warranty company.” Existing Homes Can Still Have Great Perks But it’s worth mentioning, that it’s not just newly built homes that can have warranties. It’s an option for existing homes too. Your agent may be able to help you negotiate with the seller to add one as a concession on your contract. But you should know that not all sellers will be willing to do that. If they won’t, you could purchase one yourself, if you’d like to. An article from Forbes explains: “During a real estate transaction, a home warranty policy can be purchased by the buyer or the seller.” And there are benefits for both parties when it comes to a home warranty. According to MarketWatch: “A buyer’s home warranty benefits both buyers and sellers, as it helps the seller close the deal while providing the future homeowner with peace of mind that they’ll be covered if a system or appliance breaks down . . . Sometimes, a seller will pay for the first year of the home buyer’s warranty to sweeten the deal, but it depends on the real estate market.” If you’re interested in a home warranty for peace of mind, lean on your agent. They’ll negotiate on your behalf to see if a seller would be willing to cover one for you. Just remember, the likelihood of a seller throwing one in depends on conditions in your local market. So, Should I Buy New or Existing? While the need for less upfront maintenance is a great perk for new construction, there are some things a newly built home can’t provide that an existing home can. For example, existing homes have a lot of character and charm that’s difficult to reproduce. The quirks that come with an older home may make it feel more homey. And, existing homes usually have more developed landscaping and a well-established sense of community. So, it can feel more inviting than something that’s a blank slate, like new construction often is. Not to mention, if you go with new construction, you may have to wait for the home to finish being built based on where it is in the process. It all depends on what’s most important to you. Bottom Line Whether you choose a newly built or an existing home, you may be able to ease some of your concerns over maintenance with a home warranty. To weigh your options and go over what’s the top priority for you, talk to the professionals.
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